ALBUM
Should win: Dave Matthews.
Will win: Taylor Swift.

(None of these five albums would be at the top of my list. OK, maybe Dave Matthews. No U2 or Wilco or Mat Kearney or Neko Case or… THIS.IS.DEPRESSING.)

RECORD

Should win: “Use Somebody.”
Will win: “Use Somebody.”

(“Poker Face” is about my fifth- or sixth-favorite Gaga song. Black Eyed Peas is about my fifth- or sixth- least favorite act ever.)

SONG

Should win: Uggh. “Use Somebody” or “You Belong with Me.”
Will win: “You Belong with Me.”

(Again, I prefer “Use Somebody” as a RECORD rather than a SONG. The same goes for both “Poker Face” and “Single Ladies.” Swift’s vocals are sometimes heartbreaking (in a bad way), but her song is pretty well-written.)

BEST NEW ARTIST
Should win: Mat Kearney, Diane Birch, The Script, Owl City, Animal Collective, Neko Case (You don’t have to be “new” to win here.)
Will win: Keri Hilson

(This is the 10-year anniversary of my favorite win in this category. Shelby Lynne, on her SIXTH album and having spent a dozen years in the industry, won the trophy.)